In order to know how to win in sports betting, we must first answer this fundamental question.
What to bet? Which sport is the most likely to increase our gambling capital? The following question follows from the first one. We will have to determine when to bet?
What to bet?
Bookmakers offer many possibilities for betting. The sports that bookmakers offer range from soccer to beach volleyball, from alpine skiing to gp motorcycling.
There is something for everyone, and the question of what to bet makes sense in the face of the plethora of sports on offer at approved bookmakers.
Are there certain sports that should attract our attention more than others? How should we select our bets? Should we predict a sport whose rules we don’t know well, relying solely on our instincts?
We can classify sports bets according to the number of possible outcomes per match.
Tennis, for example, has only two possible outcomes. Player A wins or player B loses. Until proven otherwise, tennis is only played with 2 players or teams and a tie is not possible.
This is not the case in soccer, for example, where draws are common. This implies that there are three possible results per match.
Of course, in the final stages of the European or World Cup, there is always a winner. As such, a distinction must be made between the winning bet in the Full time and Extra time match.
As for rugby, it is a bit between these two sports because ties at the end of the game are rather rare.
The moto gp, the tour de france or the formula 1 gp are quite different. When it comes to finding the winner, we are talking about several dozen possible winners.
So what does this mean for the way you play the game?
Should we decide to play tennis rather than Formula 1 because in the first case there is a one in two chance that we win, whereas there is a one in 22 chance that we win our bet in a Formula 1 gp.
One might think that the overriding factor in determining what to bet is the “gross probability” factor, i.e. the number of possible outcomes at the end of the sports bet.
But this is not the case because the odds are obviously adjusted to this factor.
For example, it is not uncommon to see the favorite of a Formula 1 Grand Prix having an odds of 5 when the favorite of a tennis match cannot have an odds higher than about 1.9.
If you don’t know what to bet, don’t make your choice based on the parameter “number of possible outcomes after a match”. This is not a lottery. We’re talking about sports betting where analysis takes precedence, where reflection takes precedence over chance!
The “one chance out of two” has no place in sports betting.
In order to determine which sport to bet on, one should rather :
– Have a perfect knowledge of the sport in question. Its rules, the participants … this is the subject of another chapter “Mastering a favorite sport”.
– Look for a value bet, i.e. try to find a gambling odds that you think is not a good fit. You will read the chapter “Valuebet and sports strategy”.
Some sports are known to be more easily predicted than others. But is this really true or just a myth?
There is some truth to this statement … but no certainty to be had.
The question we can ask ourselves is whether there is a sport where the logic of the winning favorite is most often respected.
Tennis, for example, is a sport where the psychology of the game predominates. Turnovers in the middle of a match are common. Despite the fact that this sport has only two possible choices (player A wins or player B wins), it is very difficult to bet a winner on this sport.
The incessant changes in the middle of a match make predictions impossible… except for live betting and overbetting strategies which together offer a very interesting winning opportunity for anyone who knows how to handle them.
As you can see, winning in sports betting is not easy. There is no winning module and no miracle recipe. Analysis is THE key to success.
In summary, answering the question “what sport do you bet on” is like answering the question “what sport do you bet on best”?
It is up to each individual to determine which sport they feel most comfortable betting on line.
When to bet?
As you know, betting is open until the start of a sporting event. From this observation, another question then arises. When is the best time to place a bet?
Ideally, we could admit that the best time to place a bet would be when an off-market offer is discovered.
Generally speaking, it would seem favorable to place your bet as soon as possible if your analysis of the game is in line with that of the market in order to avoid being a victim of odds variations and thus optimize your bet placement.
Indeed, as the event approaches, betting odds will be increasingly monitored and controlled.
Conversely, it would be wise to wait for the right moment if you go against the market in order to benefit from better betting odds.
In any case, if you have any doubts, it will be better to wait and see.
This would be the case, for example, in a match where the composition of a team would appear only a few hours before kick-off.
In summary, the best time to place a bet is :
– As soon as you find an out-of-market quote.
– As soon as you discover a new news item that has not yet been taken into account in the market prices.
– As soon as possible if you are moving in the direction of the market.
– Wait until the last moment if last minute information is likely to change the course of the event.